Simulation

Does Your Security Investment Pay Off

On $50,000 of possessions with a 1.5% annual burglary chance and 30% average loss, expected annual loss is about $225 with no security. A standard system that cuts loss by 65% reduces that to about $79, avoiding $146 per year. A $2,000 investment then pays back in roughly 14 years, with a net benefit over a 10-year horizon of about -$540. Security rarely pays back in pure dollars, but it adds safety and peace of mind that the math does not capture.

Results

Visualization

SecurFig provides illustrative budget estimates only. Prices, crime rates, and effectiveness figures are assumptions for planning, not quotes or guarantees. Consult a licensed security professional and verify local crime statistics before making decisions. This is not professional security or financial advice.

How It Works

Expected annual loss equals possessions times burglary probability times average loss fraction. With security, that loss is multiplied by (1 minus the effectiveness reduction) for the chosen tier. The amount avoided each year is the difference. Dividing the one-time investment by annual avoidance gives the payback period. The chart plots your fixed investment against cumulative avoided loss over the horizon; the crossover is your break-even point.

What Should You Do?

Treat the net-benefit number as only part of the story. Security also reduces injury risk, stress, and recovery time, none of which appear in the dollar math. If the payback is long, focus spending on the highest-reduction, lowest-cost measures (good locks, visible cameras) rather than the most expensive tier. Re-run with your local burglary statistics, which often differ greatly from the 1.5% assumption.

Frequently Asked Questions

Where does the 1.5% burglary chance come from?

It is a planning assumption, not your local rate. Look up your area's reported burglary rate and enter it for a realistic estimate.

Why can net benefit be negative?

Because security is insurance, not an investment. You often spend more than the loss you avoid, but you buy safety and peace of mind.

Does effectiveness include deterrence?

The reduction percentages are illustrative totals covering deterrence plus faster response. Real results vary by setup.

How do I improve payback?

Lower the investment (DIY, fewer components) or raise effectiveness with the highest-impact measures first, like entry locks and visible cameras.

Should I still buy security if it loses money?

Most people do, for safety beyond dollars. Use this tool to avoid overspending on a tier whose extra cost is not justified by your risk.